I was 9-5 last week, which I feel pretty good about honestly. Some of the games I missed on where a bit “fluky”.
I missed on Green Bay, Tennessee, Buffalo, Indianapolis and Cincinnati. I couldn’t foresee Seneca Wallace going down to injury for the Packers. It probably didn’t effect the outcome too much, but still. Tennessee shouldn’t have lost to the Jaguars. Buffalo isn’t as good as I like to keep thinking they may be. They’re talented, but still young, which is hard to gauge. Indianapolis shouldn’t have been blown out at home by the Rams. They need to get back to effectively running the ball, especially that was the Rams perceived weakness on defense… and because Trent Richardson is on my fantasy team… The Bengals and Ravens played a close defensive chess match like I had anticipated, but the Ravens ended up on top.
This week Dallas and St. Louis are on a bye. Let me know if you have any questions or concerns about my Week 11 NFL Predictions.
Thursday, 11/14 – 8:25 pm ET
Indianapolis Colts 6-3 @ Tennessee Titans 4-5
Prediction: Indianapolis Colts
The Titans’ defense is pretty solid and is playing at home against a Colts team that was blown out at home last week and barely escaped San Diego with a win two weeks ago. That said, I think this game is ultimately a close one, with the game coming down to a late, game-winning drive. I think that drive is led by Andrew Luck rather than Ryan Fitzpatrick. I like the Colts in this one. Plus… the Titans lost to Jacksonville!
Sunday, 11/17 – 1:00 pm ET
New York Jets 5-4 @ Buffalo Bills 3-7
Prediction: New York Jets
Buffalo isn’t as bad as their 3-7 record implies, but with the Jets coming off a bye week and fielding one of the most formidable defensive lines in the NFL, there is a lot to like about the Jets this week. The Bills, on the other hand, are actually complaining to the league office about their unfair schedule where six of their games have been against opponents coming off long weeks (either Thursday games or bye week). I know it sounds perhaps a little whiny, but you have acknowledge that having a couple extra days to prepare can be all the difference. I think that is what pushes the Jets over the top this week.
Atlanta Falcons 2-7 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1-8
Prediction: Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons are still talented enough offensively to move the ball on the Bucs. The lack of talent for Tampa Bay offensively should keep this from becoming a shootout.
Detroit Lions 6-3 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 3-6
Prediction: Detroit Lions
I wouldn’t be surprised if Dick LeBeau comes up with something to limit Calvin Johnson’s effectiveness. Will it work? Probably not… it’s Calvin Johnson. I wouldn’t be surprised though. Still… I’m picking Lions all the way.
Washington Redskins 3-6 @ Philadelphia Eagles 5-5
Prediction: Philadelphia Eagles
The offense is back and clicking with Nick Foles playing out of his mind (10 touchdowns in two games), but the real factor here could be the Eagles run game that torn up the Redskins defense in Week 1. Heck, who am I kidding? The porous Redskins’ defense will the real factor. They can’t stop anyone. I do expect this to be a close game though.
Arizona Cardinals 5-4 @ Jacksonville Jaguars 1-8
Prediction: Arizona Cardinals
Congratulations are in order for the Jaguars after last week’s win. So… win streak? Nope. The Cardinals aren’t pretty, but they have won the games they should win. That means they win this week even in Jacksonville. Oh, but Carson Palmer will throw at least one interception for the Cardinals. He has done so in every game this season.
Oakland Raiders 3-6 @ Houston Texans 2-7
Prediction: Houston Texans
It turns out that Terrelle “Superstar” Pryor isn’t a great passing quarterback. I still think he has plenty of potential to develop as one, but without his running ability, he is mediocre. His knee injury is supposed to still be a factor this week, maybe even keeping him out of the game. I’ll take the new hot-shot young quarterback, Case Keenum, to win this one.
Baltimore Ravens 4-5 @ Chicago Bears 5-4
Prediction: Chicago Bears
I know Baltimore is coming off a big win over Cincinnati while Chicago is looking at another game without Jay Cutler, but let’s not forget how bad the Ravens actually were last week. Their defense looked great, but that offense was atrocious, just cracking 100 total yards after halftime. The Ravens offense is too unreliable for me to pick them even against a Cutler-less Bears team.
Cleveland Browns 4-5 @ Cincinnati Bengals 6-4
Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals
Gut-check time in Cincinnati. The Bengals are coming off two-straight losses in overtime. Both had freak plays (a walk-off safety in Miami and the Hail Mary last week) and poor play from Cincinnati. I expect them to get back on track at home where they beat the Jets 49-9 in their last home game. The Browns are still a factor in the AFC North, but I have trouble seeing Jason Campbell leading the Browns to their second win against the more talented Bengals. It figures to be a defensive struggle between these two teams yet again.
Sunday, 11/17 – 4:05 pm ET
San Diego Chargers 4-5 @ Miami Dolphins 4-5
Prediction: San Diego Chargers
Miami can say what they want, but the Richie Incognito thing is going to be a distraction for the rest of the season. In this matchup, the Chargers talented offense is the bigger distraction, but the Chargers will need to run the ball to be effective.
Sunday, 11/17 – 4:25 pm ET
Green Bay Packers 5-4 @ New York Giants 3-6
Prediction: Green Bay Packers
I know Scott Tolzien is getting the start for Green Bay, but frankly, Eddie Lacy will carry this team. If Lacy can get going, which you know the coaching staff will emphasize, I expect Tolzien to be more than qualified to led the Packers to a win. The Giants are on a three-game winning streak, but it is against Minnesota, Philadelphia and Oakland. Green Bay is a good enough complete team to pull off the road win.
Minnesota Vikings 2-7 @ Seattle Seahawks 9-1
Prediction: Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is going to win, but it will be interesting to see how effective Adrian Peterson is in Seattle. I could see him getting stuffed, as it looks he will on paper, or have one of those epic, “how’d he do that!?” performances that superstars have when you least expect it. I’m hoping for the latter, but assuming the former.
San Francisco 49ers 6-3 @ New Orleans Saints 7-2
Prediction: New Orleans Saints
New Orleans at home is a whole different beast, much like Seattle is at home. The other factor here is that I just don’t believe in Colin Kaepernick right now. He can still do everything to be effective, but until he gets all of his weapons out there, like Michael Crabtree, he will be limited. You can’t be limited going against Drew Brees in the Superdome. I like the Saints to thrive at home.
Sunday, 11/17 – 8:30 pm ET
Kansas City Chiefs 9-0 @ Denver Broncos 8-1
Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs
I get it. Denver is a high-powered machine offensively with Peyton Manning calling all of the perfect plays at his record-setting pace for passing touchdowns. I think Denver is still a top team and probably beats the Chiefs six or seven times out of ten because of how tame the Chiefs offense plays and Manning’s greatness. However, I think the Chiefs get this one behind their defense, that has been exceptional to this point. Manning has had trouble staying up off the ground the past couple weeks and this is the matchup where that could really catch up to the Broncos. On the other side of the ball, the Broncos defense hasn’t been great at stopping opponents and with Jamaal Charles and smart play from Alex Smith, they should capitalize on the opportunities they are given. They better because Manning won’t give them many.
Monday, 11/18 – 8:40 pm ET
New England Patriots 7-2 @ Carolina Panthers 6-3
Prediction: Carolina Panthers
Tom Brady went off two weeks ago, showing this offense is able to puts points on the board still, but I like the Panthers defense in this one. The Steelers, their opponent in that offensive clinic, aren’t the Steelers of old. Well… they are old and that’s the problem. The Panthers defense has been very impressive this season with a stout defensive line and a quality secondary. If they can keep Brady from airing it out at will, which I think they will, I believe Cam Newton and the Panthers’ offense will have enough to beat New England. Yes, I realize this is an unfavorable pick with the Patriots coming off a bye, but I’m sticking with it.